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Practice Drills: Mapping a Fed Tightening Cycle to Emerging Market Fund Flows

An advanced hands-on drill course for macro-focused investors, senior finance professionals and fund managers who allocate top down. You map one complete Fed tightening cycle to emerging market fund flows from start to finish: lay out the transmission chain from the fed funds rate to an FPI sell order, date a tightening cycle from FOMC decisions, the dot plot and real yields, track the dollar index, the US 10-year yield and the US-India rate differential, read NSDL FPI data by equity, debt, primary and secondary flows, separate active money from passive and index flows, benchmark India against Korea, Taiwan, Brazil and Indonesia, rebuild the 2022 to 2023 cycle move by move against FPI flows, the rupee and the Nifty, see why DII and SIP money absorbed the selling, compare 2013's taper tantrum with 2022, estimate flow sensitivity with a simple regression, map which sectors and stocks FPIs sell first, build an early warning dashboard and write the full flow map memo.

Federal Reserve Tightening CyclesFPI and Emerging Market Fund FlowsUS Yields, the Dollar and the RupeeNSDL FPI DataTaper Tantrum and the 2022 CycleFlow Sensitivity Models and Dashboards

MODULES

6

DURATION

4 Hours

TRACK

Macro & Markets

What You'll Master

How a Fed tightening cycle travels through US real yields, the dollar and the rate differential to emerging market portfolio flows

How to date a tightening cycle and read the FOMC dot plot, real yields and the dollar index as flow signals

How to read NSDL FPI data and separate equity, debt, primary, secondary, active and passive flows

How to rebuild the 2022 to 2023 cycle against FPI flows, the rupee and the Nifty, and why domestic flows changed the outcome

How to compare the 2013 taper tantrum with 2022 and estimate India's flow sensitivity with a simple regression

How to map which sectors and stocks get sold first and build an early warning dashboard and memo for the next cycle

Access Level

LEARNER

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Everything included

Full Text Playbooks

Actionable Exercises

Mobile Reading Mode

Lifetime Updates

Curriculum Breakdown

Chapter 1: Setting Up the Drill

2 Lessons

Drill Brief: The Tightening Cycle, the Flow Map and the Rules of the Exercise12 min read

Drill: The Transmission Chain From the Fed Funds Rate to an FPI Sell Order16 min read

Chapter 2: Drill 1, Reading the Fed Cycle

2 Lessons

Drill: Dating a Fed Tightening Cycle From FOMC Decisions, the Dot Plot and Real Yields17 min read

Drill: Tracking the Dollar Index, the US 10-Year Yield and the US-India Rate Differential16 min read

Chapter 3: Drill 2, Measuring Emerging Market Fund Flows

3 Lessons

Drill: Reading NSDL FPI Data by Equity, Debt, Primary and Secondary Flows17 min read

Drill: Separating Active Fund Flows From Passive and Index Flows16 min read

Drill: Benchmarking India's Flows Against Korea, Taiwan, Brazil and Indonesia16 min read

Chapter 4: Drill 3, Mapping the 2022 Cycle Move by Move

3 Lessons

Drill: Building the Event Timeline From the March 2022 Hike to the July 2023 Peak16 min read

Drill: Lining Up FPI Outflows, the Rupee and the Nifty Against Each Fed Move17 min read

Drill: Why DII and SIP Flows Absorbed the 2022 FPI Selling15 min read

Chapter 5: Drill 4, Comparing Cycles and Measuring Sensitivity

3 Lessons

Drill: The 2013 Taper Tantrum Versus 2022 and Why India Responded Differently16 min read

Drill: Estimating Flow Sensitivity to US Yields and the Dollar With a Simple Regression18 min read

Drill: Mapping Which Sectors and Stocks FPIs Sell First16 min read

Chapter 6: Drill 5, Applying the Map to the Next Cycle

2 Lessons

Drill: Building a Flow Early Warning Dashboard for the Next Tightening Cycle17 min read

Capstone: Writing the Fed Cycle to EM Flows Memo18 min read