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Practice Drills: Building a Top Down Macro Investment Thesis

An advanced hands-on drill course for macro-focused investors, senior finance professionals and fund managers who allocate top down. You build one complete macro investment thesis on India from scratch: frame the macro question and your variant view against consensus, build a macro dashboard from RBI, MOSPI and CGA data, read the policy path from rates, liquidity and the yield curve, overlay US rates, the dollar, crude and FPI flows, trace the transmission chain from macro driver to corporate earnings, check what Nifty valuations already price in, rank sectors by macro sensitivity, pick the stocks and instruments that carry the exposure most cleanly, size and hedge the positions, build probability-weighted scenarios with signposts and kill criteria, test the process on India's 2022 rate hike cycle, and write the full thesis memo.

Top Down InvestingIndian Macro IndicatorsMacro to Earnings TransmissionSector and Stock SelectionPosition Sizing and HedgingScenarios and Kill Criteria

MODULES

6

DURATION

4 Hours

TRACK

Macro & Markets

What You'll Master

How to frame a macro question and state a variant view that differs from the consensus already in prices

How to build and read an India macro dashboard from RBI, MOSPI, CGA and NSE data, including rates, liquidity and the yield curve

How to overlay global drivers such as US rates, the dollar, crude oil and FPI flows on a domestic view

How to trace a macro driver through to sector earnings and test it against Nifty valuations and earnings expectations

How to choose the stocks and instruments that express the thesis most cleanly, then size and hedge the positions

How to build probability-weighted scenarios, set signposts and kill criteria, and write the thesis up as a complete memo

Access Level

LEARNER

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Everything included

Full Text Playbooks

Actionable Exercises

Mobile Reading Mode

Lifetime Updates

Curriculum Breakdown

Chapter 1: Setting Up the Drill

2 Lessons

Drill Brief: What a Top Down Macro Thesis Is and the One We Will Build12 min read

Drill: Framing the Macro Question and Your Variant View Against Consensus15 min read

Chapter 2: Drill 1, Reading the Macro Regime

3 Lessons

Drill: Building the India Macro Dashboard From RBI, MOSPI and CGA Data17 min read

Drill: Reading Rates, Liquidity and the Yield Curve for the Policy Path16 min read

Drill: Overlaying the Global Picture: US Rates, the Dollar, Crude and FPI Flows16 min read

Chapter 3: Drill 2, From Macro to Markets

3 Lessons

Drill: Tracing the Transmission Chain From Macro Driver to Corporate Earnings17 min read

Drill: Testing the Thesis Against Nifty Valuations and Earnings Expectations16 min read

Drill: Ranking Nifty Sectors by Macro Sensitivity16 min read

Chapter 4: Drill 3, From Sectors to Positions

3 Lessons

Drill: Screening for the Stocks That Carry the Macro Exposure Most Cleanly16 min read

Drill: Choosing the Expression: Index Funds, Sector ETFs, Stocks, Gilts or Gold15 min read

Drill: Sizing the Positions and Hedging the Risks You Do Not Want17 min read

Chapter 5: Drill 4, Stress-Testing and Monitoring the Thesis

3 Lessons

Drill: Building Bull, Base and Bear Macro Scenarios With Probabilities16 min read

Drill: Setting Signposts and Kill Criteria for the Thesis14 min read

Drill: Replaying the Process on India's 2022 Rate Hike Cycle17 min read

Chapter 6: Capstone

1 Lessons

Capstone Drill: Writing the Full Top Down Macro Thesis Memo18 min read