Masterclass Case Study: Ruchir Sharma's Breakout Nations Thesis Applied to India Over a Decade

A masterclass case study for senior macro investors, global fund managers and top-down strategists that runs one country through one framework for more than a decade. In 2012 Ruchir Sharma's Breakout Nations was sceptical of India, at a time of policy paralysis, twin deficits, high inflation and crony capitalism. This course scores India against his rules at the 2012 baseline, then follows the decade episode by episode: the 2013 taper tantrum and the Fragile Five, the 2014 mandate, inflation targeting and cheap oil, the twin balance sheet problem, demonetisation and GST, the IBC, the IL&FS and NBFC crisis, COVID, the corporate tax cut and PLI, conglomerate concentration, the jobs question and India's turn as the consensus darling. At each stage the scorecard is rescored and set against what Indian markets actually did, in rupees and in dollars, with FPI flows against the domestic SIP buyer base. It closes with a verdict on what the thesis got right, wrong and early, a current scorecard with the swing indicators to watch, and a capstone in which you write your own decade-ahead India thesis. Builds directly on the companion masterclass on Sharma's framework.