Advanced
Contrarian Investing: Identifying Value in Out of Favor Sectors
An advanced course on buying what the market has abandoned, without catching falling knives. Learn to separate cyclical troughs from structural decline, apply the capital cycle to Indian sectors, value businesses on normalised earnings and replacement cost, run balance sheet survival tests, identify the catalysts that end a bear phase, and size contrarian positions so that being early does not mean being wrong. Built around real NSE and BSE sector cycles: PSU banks, real estate, telecom, pharma, capital goods and IT.
Sector Mean ReversionCyclical vs Structural DeclineThe Capital CycleNormalised Earnings ValuationBalance Sheet SurvivalCatalysts and TimingContrarian Portfolio Construction
MODULES
7
DURATION
~6.1 hrs
TRACK
Value Investing
What You'll Master
Why out-of-favor sectors have historically delivered the best forward returns on the NSE, and why most investors still cannot buy them
How to diagnose whether a sector is in a cyclical trough, a regulatory overhang or a permanent structural decline
How to apply the capital cycle framework to Indian sectors like cement, steel, telecom and real estate
How to value depressed businesses using normalised earnings, price to book, EV to replacement cost and screener.in custom queries
How to run balance sheet survival tests so you own the companies that outlast the trough
How to identify the catalysts that historically ended Indian sector bear markets, from PSU bank recapitalisation to RERA
How to stage entries, size positions and set exit rules for a contrarian portfolio
Access Level
LEARNER
Everything included
Full Text Playbooks
Actionable Exercises
Mobile Reading Mode
Lifetime Updates
Curriculum Breakdown
Chapter 1: Why Out of Favor Sectors Outperform
4 Lessons▶
The Contrarian Edge: Where Excess Returns Actually Come From13 min read
▶
Sector Mean Reversion on the NSE: What Two Decades of Data Show13 min read
▶
Contrarian vs Value Trap: The Distinction That Decides Everything12 min read
▶
The Psychology of Hated Sectors: Why Consensus Is Slow to Turn12 min read
Chapter 2: Diagnosing Why a Sector Is Out of Favor
4 Lessons▶
Cyclical Trough, Regulatory Overhang or Structural Decline: A Diagnostic Framework14 min read
▶
Reading Sector Sentiment: Fund Holdings, Broker Coverage and Media Tone12 min read
▶
Case Study: Indian Telecom After Jio, Structural Shock or Cyclical Trough?14 min read
▶
Case Study: Indian Pharma 2016 to 2019, Pricing Pressure and USFDA Overhang13 min read
Chapter 3: The Capital Cycle Framework
4 LessonsChapter 4: Valuing a Business at the Bottom of Its Cycle
4 LessonsChapter 5: Survival Tests, Who Lives to See the Recovery
4 Lessons▶
Balance Sheet Stress Testing: Debt, Interest Cover and Refinancing Walls14 min read
▶
Cash Burn, Working Capital and the Runway to Recovery12 min read
▶
Promoter Behaviour in a Downturn: Pledges, Buybacks and Insider Buying12 min read
▶
Case Study: Real Estate 2013 to 2020, Who Survived and Why14 min read
Chapter 6: Catalysts and Timing the Turn
4 Lessons▶
What Ends a Sector Bear Market: A Catalogue of Indian Catalysts13 min read
▶
Leading Indicators of a Sector Turn: Pricing, Utilisation, Credit and Order Books13 min read
▶
Case Study: PSU Banks 2018 to 2023, From Bad Loans to Record Profits14 min read
▶
Case Study: Capital Goods and the Long Wait from 2011 to 202113 min read
Chapter 7: Building and Managing a Contrarian Portfolio
4 Lessons▶
Position Sizing and Staged Entries When You Cannot Time the Bottom13 min read
▶
Basket vs Best-in-Class: How to Express a Sector View12 min read
▶
Exit Rules: Selling into Recovery and Admitting a Thesis Is Broken13 min read
▶
The Contrarian Checklist: 25 Questions Before You Buy a Hated Sector14 min read