Case Study: The Eurozone Debt Crisis and Greece's Sovereign Default Risk

An advanced case study for macro-focused investors, senior finance professionals and top-down fund managers on the defining sovereign debt crisis of the post-2008 era. It starts with the euro's design: a single central bank and a single currency sitting on top of separate national budgets, with fiscal rules that were never enforced and bond markets that priced Greek risk like German risk for most of a decade. It then follows Greece from euro entry through the October 2009 deficit revision, runs the debt dynamics equation on its 2010 numbers, and traces the crisis through the first bailout, contagion to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy, the 2012 private sector restructuring and CDS credit event, and Mario Draghi's 'whatever it takes' pledge. A market-signals chapter reads the crisis through spreads over Bunds, CDS-implied default probability, rating actions and TARGET2 balances. The aftermath covers 2015's referendum and capital controls, the austerity debate and Greece's return to investment grade. It closes with the impact on Indian markets, why India's debt profile differs from Greece's, the lesson for Indian state finances, a sovereign stress dashboard and a capstone dossier. Educational content only, not investment advice.